THE CHOICE

Posted at 7:06 a.m. ET

Just about everyone, probably including the Weekly Reader, is reporting that Senator Obama will announce his vice presidential choice in the next few days.  We await breathlessly for the saint to speak the name of the newly chosen assistant saint.  Speculation surrounds the following worthies, each and every one known for purity, goodness, and even virginity:

1.  Senator Even Bayh of Indiana.  Pros:  A nice guy with a clean history, known as a moderate Democrat.  He would assure moderates in the party that they count for something, if only the vice presidency.  Could help Obama carry Indiana, which may be in play this year.  Cons:  Bland, no great accomplishments, a boring orator, a "marshmallow," as Dick Morris called him last night.

2.  Senator Joe Biden of Delaware.  Pros:  Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he brings the appearance of gravitas, and real expertise on foreign relations; a reasonably moderate Democrat; coming from Delaware, he doesn't bring large electoral votes, so the choice would seem to be a serious "best man" choice; compelling personal story of how he carried on after his wife and child were killed in an accident following his election to the Senate.  Cons:  Ran for president and never caught on; very talkative, with the risks that brings of a gaffe; no excitement factor.

3.  Governor Kathleen Sibelius of Kansas.  Pros:  A woman; a governor with executive experience; allows Obama to emphasize that he was partially brought up with "Kansas values," as his white grandparents come from that state; reasonably good speaker.  Cons:  A woman, but not Hillary, and her choice is likely to enrage many Hillary supporters; unknown to the public outside Kansas; somewhat controversial inside the state; zero foreign-policy experience.

4.  Governor Tim Kaine of Virginia.  Pros:  A nice guy with working-class values; could help carry Virginia, a critical state; a governor.  Cons:  Absolutely no foreign-policy experience; a mediocre record as governor, whose previous experience was as mayor of a city of fewer than 200,000 residents.

5.  Hillary.  A long shot.  Nothing more need be said.

It isn't, to put it mildly, a group whose names scream "obvious choice."  There is, of course, one obvious choice, and it's Hillary.  Naming her would unite the party, and probably give Obama a brief bump in the polls as it would show his "daring" and "graciousness."  But naming her could also bring all kinds of problems, including the sense that Obama isn't running things.  Also, Hillary might not wear well in a general election.  Her popularity among the public at large is less than overwhelming.

Of the others, Biden would be the best "government" choice.  Sibelius, as noted, would enrage the Hillary crowd. 

But the worst choice, from a governing viewpoint, would be Kaine of Virginia.  For a presidential candidate of minimal accomplishment to choose a veep with the same problem would insult the public.  Kaine's lack of foreign-policy experience would send a signal that either 1) Obama doesn't really care about foreign policy at a time of great challenge to the nation or, 2) that he doesn't want anyone interfering with his foreign policy, a frightening thought considering his gaffes and his often childish views. 

Prediction?  I don't make predictions here.  I will occasionally speculate.  Unless the choice is out of the blue, the Dems would probably be best off with Biden, who at least brings some seriousness.  This is Obama's first major decision as a presidential candidate.  It will at least hint at how seriously he takes his new role.

August 19, 2008.